Friday, August 3, 2012

Mike Gimbel: Unemployment analysis

This morning's report on unemployment by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a very bad report. The report claims that 163,000 jobs were created in July, 2012. The BLS data says the very opposite!
The civilian labor force shrunk by 150,000 in July from June's 155,163.000 to July's 155,013,000.
The employed dropped by 195,000 in July from  June's 142,415,000 to July's 142,220,000.
The "officially" unemployed rose by 45,000 in July from June's 12,749,000 to July's 12,794,000
The dump, where the real unemployed are hidden (the "Not in the Labor Force" category) rose by 348,000 in July from June's 87,992,000 to July's 88,340,000.
This results in a sharp increase in the REAL unemployment rate from 17.18% in June to 17.37% in July, 2012
This results in a sharp increase in the REAL unemployment+underemployment rate from 21.95% in June to 22.16% in July, 2012.
A "double dip" depression is inevitable. It is inevitable simply because, at some point, this several year's long extended period of lack of growth in REAL employment MUST run into the next capitalist bust cycle. That would mean additional massive increase in unemployment ON TOP OF THE CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT! RATE!!!
I looked at the BLS report for Black unemployment, due to the fact that this depression has hit the Black community hardest. The estimates below are just that: estimates. But the estimates, since they are based upon the published BLS data, should not be too far off. Therefore, my "guestimates" on the REAL unemployment and underemployment rates for the Black community are as follows:
The "official" July, 2012 BLS unemployment rate is stated to be 8.25%
The "official" July, 2012 BLS unemployment rate for the Black community is stated to be 14.1%
The "official" July, 2012 BLS unemployment rate (8.25%) as compared to the "official" Black unemployment rate (14.1%) is a factor of 1.709.
Multiplying the REAL unemployment rate of 17.37% by the 1.709 factor results in a REAL unemployment rate for the Black community of 29.69%. This means that the Black unemployment is 2.106 times greater than the "official" 14.1% unemployment rate.
The REAL unemployment+underemployment rate of 22.16% vs. the REAL unemployment rate of 17.37% is a factor of 1.276
Multiplying the REAL unemplyment rate of the Black population of 29.69% by 1.276 results in a REAL unemployment+underemployment rate of 37.88% for the Black community.
This dire situation for the Black community is much worse for Black youth, 16-19 years old! It is so dire that Is it possible that this simple process of comparison to the "official" BLS base numbers, seems almost unreal! Even if my estimates are off by some amount, these calculations do indicate the level of the catastrophe for Black youth!
So here goes:
The "official" BLS unemployment rate for Black youth, 16-19 years of age is 36.6%. Multiplying by a factor of 2.106 reveals a REAL unemployment rate of an astounding 77.08%!!!!!
Multiplying the 77.08% by the above factor of 1.276% reveals an unemployment+underemployment rate of 98.35%
This means that almost ALL the employment of Black youth, 16-19 years of age, such as it is, is in part-time employment. The above calculation would indicate that 21.27% (98.35% - 77.08%) of Black youth, 16-19 years old, are working in part-time jobs, but want full-time jobs. Only a tiny minority of 1.65% (100% - 98.35%) of Black youth, 16-19 years old, have full-time jobs.
Whatever the actual figure of unemployed+underemployed is, it cannot be too far off or too much better, for Black youth, than the above calculation. My calculations for Black youth are, admittedly, only a broad estimate, but no matter how you "cut it", it is a disaster of epic proportions!
--Mike Gimbel
The stupidities and absurdities by which mathematicians have rather excused than explained their mode of procedure, which remarkably enough always lead to correct results, exceed the worst and real fantasies of the Hegelian philosophy of nature.
                                                                  --Frederick Engels
Good physics is the study of three-dimensional matter in motion. Good mathematics involves unlimited dimensions, from utilization of just one dimension, two dimensions, four dimensions or as many dimensions as can be imagined. This is bad physics, however. Matter has only three dimensions: Length, Width & Height.
Physics has been in crisis for a century due to the intrusion of the field of mathematics. String Theory is the ultimate result of this nonsensical mathematical intrusion into physics.
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