Irish revolution: where is the North going?

Northern Ireland: An agreement to cement division

ON 5 FEBRUARY the DUP and Sinn Fein agreed a deal on policing, justice and parades. The deal was announced in triumph as a "historic breakthrough" by First Minister Peter Robinson of the DUP and his deputy Martin McGuinness of Sinn Fein, sitting alongside Gordon Brown and the Irish Taoiseach (PM) Brian Cowen.

Ciaran Mulholland, (CWI, Northern Ireland)

Policing and justice will be transferred to local control by 12 April and the issue of contentious parades will be reviewed over the next three weeks by a "working party". On 9 March an Assembly vote will be required to agree the package.

Is it a "breakthrough"? The signs are that the DUP is split on the merits of the deal. Five days before it was agreed 14 DUP MLAs (members of the legislative assembly) reportedly voted against a very similar proposal and there were even rumours of resignations from the Assembly party if it went through.

It is not clear what changes were made in the intervening five days but it is clear that key issues, particularly the issue of parades, were fudged. The DUP were clearly under huge pressure to sign up, and were fearful of an early Assembly election. The nightmare scenario for Peter Robinson now is that he becomes a new David Trimble, (the protestant former UUP leader whose association with 'power sharing' led to his political demise) desperately trying to sell the deal as unionist support ebbs away.

This new deal changes nothing of substance. The system of government in the North will remain dysfunctional, incapable of delivering and prone to breakdown.

The negotiations occurred against a background of a series of unprecedented scandals that have rocked the two main parties in the Northern Ireland executive and have to be seen in that light. The DUP have had to deal with a swirl of accusations around Iris Robinson, MP, MLA, local councillor, and wife of Peter Robinson, who has been mired in a sex and corruption scandal.

Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams has been under intense scrutiny after telling the media his version of events surrounding accusations he covered up allegations against his brother Liam of sexual abuse.

Long 'Peace Process'

It is now over 15 years since the first IRA ceasefire and over 20 years since the beginnings of what became known as the "peace process". 'The Troubles', in their most intense phase, lasted from 1969 to 1994. In other words the so-called "peace process", has now lasted almost as long as the Troubles.

This is no accident. Twenty years of interminable talks have not produced a solution because no solution is possible between the current protagonists or indeed under capitalism.

The reality is that the Good Friday Agreement, St Andrews Agreement, and the agreement over policing and justice, are not agreements in any accepted use of the term.

The entire peace process has been about cementing division. Any agreement is an agreement to carve up power, not to share power. The parties on each side of the sectarian divide thrive on sectarian division and maintain sectarian division.

Unionist unity?

According to many commentators, and in the hopes of the British and Irish governments, bringing the 'extremes', that is the DUP and Sinn Fein, together in the executive would finally deliver stability. It clearly hasn't and the DUP are seriously concerned about being outflanked by the new Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV).

A general election must be held by early June - probably on 6 May. An Assembly election must be held by May 2011 at the latest. Local elections will probably occur also in May 2011. This series of three elections poses serious problems for the DUP.

Results of recent council by-elections and the European elections suggest that the TUV have the potential to seriously increase their vote. Now that the DUP has signed up to a deal on justice, policing and parades TUV leader Jim Allister will shout "sell-out" and the TUV vote could be even higher. It is entirely possible that the TUV will be bolstered by defections from the DUP.

The TUV will certainly win Assembly seats. The unionist vote could be split three ways between the TUV, DUP and UUP, and Sinn Fein could emerge as the largest Assembly party and, theoretically, Martin McGuinness would be elected First Minister.

Such a possibility has concentrated unionist minds. Talks around the issue of greater unionist unity have been held.

To an extent developments will depend on whether Peter Robinson emerges relatively unscathed from the recent scandals. 23 days after stepping down Robinson returned to the role of First Minister on 3 February having been 'cleared' in a whitewash by a government appointed barrister. However, new revelations are emerging and will probably continue to emerge.

Sinn Fein cover up

Sinn Fein too has been dealing with a series of scandals - a number of allegations that it covered up sexual abuse carried out by prominent republicans. As the Sunday Tribune in particular has exposed, there is ample evidence that Gerry Adams' and Sinn Fein's instinctive reaction was to cover up the allegations.

Sinn Fein is not under an electoral threat comparable to the DUP's though dissident candidates could do better in the coming elections than before and could pick up the odd council seat.

As throughout the last 40 years, the lack of a credible mass working class party means that the majority of working-class people who vote will continue to vote for the main sectarian parties. However opposition to Sinn Fein in its heartlands is growing.

This opposition is based on its perceived failure to deliver on the national question (no-one, including its own leaders, believes in the United Ireland by 2016 propaganda any longer) and its failure to deliver on social and economic issues, and will be reinforced by the scandal around Liam Adams.

Whilst the dissidents cannot mount a credible electoral challenge to Sinn Fein there is nevertheless clear evidence that they are growing in size, confidence and capability. The intentions of the dissidents are clear - they do not have the resources for a paramilitary campaign on the scale of the Provisional IRA campaign but they will continue with intermittent attacks in an attempt to destabilise the Executive.

If policing is devolved to Stormont the storm generated by, for example, the killing of a police officer will be intense. Sinn Fein will continue to call for people to go to the Police Service of Northern Ireland with information on the dissidents, thus further undermining their credibility with young Catholics.

It is now much more likely that there will be conflict around parades this summer. The dissidents demonstrated their intent in Ardoyne last summer when they organised a protest against an Orange Order parade which ended in a riot.

Political alternative

Working class people are facing a future of rising unemployment and deepening poverty. The Executive has announced £400 million cuts in public services, including £113 million from the health service, the threat of water charges looms and whichever party forms the next British government it is guaranteed even more cuts will be made to public spending.

The working class and young people cannot rely on the Assembly to deliver lasting peace and a decrease in sectarian division or improved living standards, but instead must rely on their own strength.

It is more urgent than ever that a political alternative, which attracts support from both Protestant and Catholic working class people, is built. The trade union leaders should break their 'partnership' with the sectarian parties in the Assembly and recognise the need for an independent political voice for workers.