Friday, July 6, 2012

Mike Gimbel on BLS unemployment analysis

This morning's publication of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unemployment rate for June, 2012 reported that unemployment has held steady at 8.2%
The REAL unemployment rate also held steady at 17.18% in June as compared to 17.19% in May, 2012.
The REAL unemployed + underemployed rate rose very slightly from 21.90% in May, to 21.95% in June, 2012.
There is some underlying reason, when I looked at the subsidiary numbers, to think that some re-hiring is taking place, but not enough, at least not yet, to change the current dire economic situation. This weak and extended "recovery" has all the features of a tragedy in the making. The business cycle is a "boom and Bust" cycle. The trough of the previous cycle was 66 months ago. Because of the length of this extended "Boom & Bust" cycle and the weak "recovery", the next cycle is likely to occur BEFORE this weak "recovery" runs its course. Therefore, the next "Bust" is likely to be on top of a portion of the "Bust", not on top of a full "recovery".
Please see the attached document for the updated graph for June, 2012 as comapred to of all the previous jobless cycles since 1957.
--Mike Gimbel

The stupidities and absurdities by which mathematicians have rather excused than explained their mode of procedure, which remarkably enough always lead to correct results, exceed the worst and real fantasies of the Hegelian philosophy of nature.
                                                                  --Frederick Engels
Good physics is the study of three-dimensional matter in motion. Good mathematics involves unlimited dimensions, from utilization of just one dimension, two dimensions, four dimensions or as many dimensions as can be imagined. This is bad physics, however. Matter has only three dimensions: Length, Width & Height.
Physics has been in crisis for a century due to the intrusion of the field of mathematics. String Theory is the ultimate result of this nonsensical mathematical intrusion into physics.
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