Friday, February 1, 2013

Mike Gimbel on Today's BLS report

The BLS announced this morning that an additional 157,000 person were added to the payrolls in January, 2013. As is their methodology, this figure comes from a separate file, not the Household data file. The Household data file is the file from which the unemployment rate is figured. It is political 'spin', therefore, to accept,as reality, the 157,000 figure. The nonsensical 'official' unemployment rate, as announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increased from 7.85% in December to 7.92% in January. No one should give any credence to that figure!
Here's the actual data, as reported by the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the BLS Table A, where the official unemployment rate is figured:
October: 143,328,000
November: 143,277,000 (a drop of 51,000 from October, not the falsely claimed 146,000 increase)
December: 143,305,000 ( an increase of 28,000 from November, not the falsely claimed 155,000 increase)
January:    143,322,000 (an increase of 17,000 from December, not the falsely claimed 157,000 increase)
Total change in employment from October, 2012 to January 2013: An actual drop 0f 6,000 employed, not the falsely claimed 458,000 increase in employment!
October: 12,248,000
November: 12,042,000 ( a drop of 206,000 from October)
December: 12,206,000 (an increase of 164,000 from November)
January:    12,332,000 (an increase of 126,000 from December)
Total change in unemployed from October, 2012 to January, 2013:    an increase of 84,000 in the unemployed.
Not in the Labor Force (the category where much of the hidden unemployed are pigeon-holed):
October: 88,407,000
November: 88,855,000 (an increase of 448,000 from October)
December: 88,839,000 (a drop of 16,000 from November)
January:    89,008,000 (an increase of 169,000 from December).
Total change in Not in the Labor Force category from October, 2012 to January, 2013: An increase of 601,000. A 'normal' increase, accounting for retirements and other 'natural' leaving employment would be less than half that figure. The rest is hidden unemployment.
Here's the resultant REAL unemployment rates (not he phony 7.92% reported by BLS):
October: 16.65%
November: 16.63%
December: 16.74%
January:    16.90%
Here's the REAL unemployed+underemployed rates:
October: 21.47%
November: 21.37%
December: 21.34%
January:    21.52%
Interpreting the above:
Although there has been an actual weakening of the jobs situation since October, this may just be a minor negative fluctuation. It will take a few more months before we can call this a trend towards a serious dip in the economy. In any case, it portends, once more, an economic catastrophe in the making. As I have stated on numerous occasions, with every passing month, the capitalist economy must enter a "bust" at some point and that point is coming closer and closer. While we cannot predict the date of 'reckoning, it is, inevitably, heading our way. The capitalist "Boom" and "Bust" cycle is an "Iron Law". Every "Boom" must be followed by a "Bust", no matter how strong or weak was the "Boom".
Most prior "Boom" and "Bust" cycles would have completed their cycle by now. This overly extended and very weak "Boom" and "Bust" started in December, 2006 when the previous "Boom" ended with a REAL unemployment rate of 7.65% and a 10.28% unemployment+underemployment rate. It should be noted that the "Boom" that ended in December, 2006 did not re-employ all those made unemployed by the previous "Bust". April, 2000 was the peak of the previous "Boom" with a REAL unemployment rate of just 3.91% (the lowest rate since WWII) and an unemployment+underemployment rate of just 6.05%. Therefore, the current "Bust" was built up on top of the 7.65% unemployment rate, not the previous 3.91% unemployment rate. That is what makes the current unemployment situation so critical. If the next "Bust" hits while unemployment is so very high, say 15% or more, the newly unemployed will be in addition to those who still have not found employment from the previous "Bust". Look at Greece and Spain, with better than 25% unemployment and probably 30%-35% underemployment. That is the likely catastrophic outcome.
Not a pretty picture! The progressive movement had better start to realize that tying their fate to lobbying the Democratic Party politicians, rather than uniting with community and leftist organizations in actual, militant physical struggle to defend worker rights, is a losing strategy. Union general strikes and mass community demonstrations against racism and discrimination and in defense of unions and Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Education, etc... is the way to get REAL PROGRESS. How do you get the donkey's attention?: with a 2x4 across its head, not by begging. The end to the "Right to Work" legislative attack on labor unions will not come though lobbying. Wall Street could care less how many lobbyists you send. They have many more lobbyists because they have all the money and have a bought and paid for government to do their bidding.
But we are the 99.99%!!!     The .001% fear us because they are perfectly aware of how few of them they are! But we can't scare them with lobbyists. They laugh all the way to the bank when they see our pitiful efforts in that area. When we do that as our primary effort, we are playing into their hands. We are playing on their "Home Court"! Our "Home Court" is the community where the 99.99% live.
During the 1930's the capitalist ruling class had to make concession to the labor movement after a series of general strikes proved to them that they had better give up some of their wealth or face a revolutionary situation. Real progress was made in the streets and this same situation happened in the 1960's with the Civil rights movement and the Vietnam anti-war movement. We made Wall Street tremble before our power in the 1930's and the 1960's. That's how to defeat these Wall Street attacks on our living standards and our rights! Progressive organizations need to unite with the leftist groups and parties and the leftist groups and parties need the progressive groups to unite with them in order to mutually go forward. If we remain divided, Wall Street will win and the community will lose. Let's get together! The McCarthy period broke the back of that unity between the labor movement and the Marxist organizations who helped the unions grow strong in the 1930's. That re-birth of the labor/Marxist unity that was destroyed by the McCarthy era witch-hunt is an absolute minimal necessity for defense of our communities from the predatory attacks coming from Wall Street.
In UNITY there is Strength!
--Mike Gimbel

The stupidities and absurdities by which mathematicians have rather excused than explained their mode of procedure, which remarkably enough always lead to correct results, exceed the worst and real fantasies of the Hegelian philosophy of nature.
                                                                  --Frederick Engels
Good physics is the study of three-dimensional matter in motion. Good mathematics involves unlimited dimensions, from utilization of just one dimension, two dimensions, four dimensions or as many dimensions as can be imagined. This is bad physics, however. Matter has only three dimensions: Length, Width & Height.
Physics has been in crisis for a century due to the intrusion of the field of mathematics. String Theory is the ultimate result of this nonsensical mathematical intrusion into physics.
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