Why so quiet, why so long?

from the UK IMT

....

The lag in consciousness

Trotsky explained many times that the relationship between the economic cycle and consciousness is not an automatic relationship. It is conditioned by many factors, which must be analyzed concretely. He also pointed out that one of the most difficult and complicated tasks that faces Marxist analysis is to answer the question: through what phase are we passing?

At present consciousness is lagging far behind the objective situation in the advanced capitalist countries. The mass organizations of the working class are lagging far behind the real situation. Above all, the leadership of the proletariat is lagging far behind the objective situation. These factors did not drop from the clouds; they have been conditioned by decades and generations of capitalist economic upswing, of full employment and relative improvements of living standards. This process was guaranteed by the counter-revolutionary action of Stalinism and socialdemocracy which through their control of the organizations that the class recognizes as theirs, put a brake on and diverted the masses which despite everything waged tremendous class battles in this period

This has been the position, particularly in the advanced capitalist nations, not for a short time, but for a period of half a century. It is true that even in the last period, there was an enormous intensification of exploitation, based on an increase in relative and absolute surplus value. The hours of work were increased and merciless pressure was applied to increase productivity. However, on the basis of overtime, whole families working, young people working on part-time contracts, credit and debt, many workers were able to increase their living standards in absolute terms, even as the rate of exploitation rose sharply and the bosses increased their share of the surplus value at the expense of the workers.

In the last period, the intensification of the international division of labour led to a cheapening of the price of commodities, which meant that workers were able to buy things that previously were considered luxury items: mobile phones, big-screen televisions, computers, laptops etc. Marx explained long ago the difference between real wages, money wages and nominal wages (See Wage Labour and Capital). In a boom, it is quite possible for wages to decline vis a vis capital, while nominal wages increase, and the worker can purchase a larger amount of commodities than before. This is particularly true in periods when inflation is low, as was the case, for special reasons, in the last boom, where both prices and interest rates were kept down.

In the USA, Britain, Ireland and Spain, rising house prices added to the sensation of a significant layer that “we are better off”. The workers in the advanced countries understood that they were being exploited, but in the absence of any alternative from the trade union and labour leaders, were compelled to seek individual solutions through long hours of overtime, overwork and debt.

That is what conditioned the consciousness of the working class in the advanced capitalist countries, although the conditions in the so-called third world were, and are, completely different. Now, however, everything has changed into its opposite. All the factors that combined to push the world economy up are now propelling the world into a vicious downward spiral. This will have the most profound effects on consciousness. But this process is not linear and automatic, but highly complex and contradictory.

Why the delay?

The consciousness of the masses is conditioned by a whole series of factors, both objective and subjective which are dialectically interrelated, including the economic cycle and previous events, the experience accumulated in the actual class struggle and in its reflection in the workers’ organizations.

The 1990s and the 2000s were marked by a relative stabilization of capitalism in the advanced capitalist countries. To the defeat of the revolutionary upswing of the 1970s, a defeat which, according to each country, can be dated between the end of the 1970s and the early 1980s we must add the fall of the Soviet bloc in 1989-91. This caused a lot of confusion in the labour movement and allowed the ruling class to launch an unprecedented ideological counter-offensive against the ideas of socialism.

On the back of these processes, the ruling class waged a constant campaign to attempt to destroy all the gains of the past – cuts in public services, privatisation of utilities, destruction of acquired rights and conditions, attacks on pension rights, casualisation of labour, intensification of the extraction of relative and absolute surplus value, etc.

On many occasions the workers resisted these attacks, even with general mobilisations. In France, Italy, Spain, Greece and other countries we have seen waves of strikes and even general strikes against the plans of the ruling class. As is always the case many of these movements have ended up in defeats or at best partial victories which have temporarily delayed the attacks. Historically speaking many more strikes are lost than won. In fact, the only time when workers are able to achieve important victories is when the capitalists feel that their system is under threat (for instance in May 68, or in the late 1960s early 1970s in Italy) or in a period of significant economic growth like the post-war upswing.

The economic growth that we have witnessed in the last 20 years has not been enough to allow for the granting of important reforms, but it has allowed many workers to look for individual solutions to their problems: the incorporation of women into the labour market, more members of the family unit going out to work, overtime, the expansion of credit, etc.

However, since the defeats of the early 1980s (British miners’ strike, the Spanish “reconversion industrial”, the Fiat strike of 1980 in Italy, PATCO strike in the US), there have been no significant defeats of the working class in Europe. The ranks of the working class have been replenished by the economic boom, with the incorporation of whole new layers of young workers. It is true to say that these sectors have no traditions, but they are also fresh and do not carry the dead weight of the defeats of the past. In many cases it has been these new layers that have been at the forefront of important and militant struggles (as was the case with the struggle at FIAT Melfi). Total employment in the 16 countries of the euro-zone went up from 125 million in 1995 to 148 million in 2008 at the beginning of the recession. At the same time we have also seen the wholesale proletarianisation of formerly privileged layers, like bank and insurance workers, teachers, civil servants, etc.

This kind of boom, based mainly on the increased exploitation of the working class, has created an accumulation of anger which has not yet found a channel of expression. The anti-capitalist/anti-globalisation movement, with all its confusions was a reflection of this, as were the massive mobilisations against the Iraq war, involving millions of people. More recently, the economic crisis has led to a mood of hatred and loathing for the bankers, financial speculators, etc. All these are just symptoms of what is to come, but are also an important part of the experience of the masses in the recent period which will contribute to shaping the events that are impending.

All these factors have influenced the character and development of the mobilisations of the youth, but also of the workers, and must be kept in consideration still today if we want our intervention to be effective.

There is no such thing as a “final crisis” of capitalism. The boom-slump cycle has been a constant feature of capitalism for over two hundred years. The capitalist system will always eventually get out of even the deepest economic crisis until the system is consciously overthrown by the working class. But the concrete question is this: how do the capitalists get out of the crisis and at what cost to the masses? And the second question is: what is the relationship between the economic cycle and the consciousness of the working class?

The IMF is projecting a recovery for 2010 and there are indications that this is the case. However, the real question is, what kind of recovery? Who benefits and who pays? Even the best case scenario is an extremely feeble recovery, which will be accompanied, not by an improvement in living standards, but by ferocious attacks on living standards, cuts in public spending, and increased taxation which will fall on the working class and the middle class.

When Arnold Schwarzenegger unveiled his final budget as governor of California, including vicious spending cuts to try to close a $20 billion deficit, he said there was “simply no conceivable way to avoid more cuts and more pain”. This would be an appropriate slogan for the ruling class, not only of the USA, but of the whole world. This is not a scenario for social peace and stability.

A recovery with those characteristics will serve to infuriate the working class at a certain stage and that will be accompanied by waves of strikes and a general revival of the class struggle. Already there are the beginnings of struggles against the crisis and rising costs of living. We have already seen protests in Hungary against the financial crisis, and in Turkey, where 60,000 workers protested against price increases and unemployment, following the call of the unions, and the students joined in. Similar protests and mobilizations have taken place across Europe and even on Wall Street itself.

Although we are passing through the biggest crisis since the 1930s – possibly in the history of capitalism – the crisis has not yet expressed itself in a tidal wave of strikes and general strikes. There is no question that the crisis is producing significant changes on a world scale. But they are not yet being clearly expressed in the labour movement. In Iran there is the beginning of a revolution, and a similar situation is developing in Honduras. But in the key industrial countries, the movement is developing slowly.

Some comrades do not understand why the crisis has not immediately expressed itself in mass mobilizations, strikes and occupations. The delay in the movement can cause perplexity and frustration in the ranks of the revolutionary movement if it is not explained. It is worse than useless to make general statements about the “revolutionary nature of the Epoch” in order to explain to a worker why his workmates in the factory are not willing to strike. Trotsky made this very clear when he wrote the following:

“If one proceeds only on the basis of the overall characterization of the epoch, and nothing more, ignoring its concrete stages, one can easily lapse into schematism, sectarianism, or quixotic fantasy. With every serious turn of events we adjust our basic tasks to the changed concrete conditions of the given stage. Herein lies the art of tactics.” (Trotsky, Writings, 1939-40, p.103)

What is the reason for this delay? The onset of the crisis has caught the workers by surprise, and the initial reaction is one of shock and disorientation. This is hardly surprising. It is a very concrete question. Workers see the factories are being closed, their jobs are at risk, their families are at risk, the trade union leaders do not offer any alternative, but rather, use this situation to discourage strikes. For a time they can succeed in keeping a lid on the movement. But this has a limit.

Temporarily, the onset of mass unemployment has had a restraining effect on strikes. But when there is even a small upturn, and they see that the bosses are no longer sacking people but taking a few people on and the order books are beginning to fill up, this can act as a powerful stimulus to the economic struggle. The car manufacturers are selling off their surplus stocks, closing factories and sacking workers. But once they finish running down the stocks, there will be a certain small improvement, which will serve to embolden the car workers, and in particular those who are not currently unionized, to take action.

Workers are willing to take this for the time being. They want to believe that the worst is indeed over, that they have made it through the storm to relative shelter. They are willing to “wait and see,” and hope for real change from Obama. But this has its limits; the worst is far from over. The immediate shock of last year’s crisis may have subsided, but now the reality is gradually creeping in: Americans are going to be forced to accept a new, lower standard of living, and there will be no rapid bounce back of jobs. Millions of the jobs lost are gone forever, to be replaced by fewer jobs offering lower wages, no benefits, and no union protections.

In the short run, the workers see no alternative but to accept closures and sackings. Because the union leaders offer no alternative, there is a resigned, fatalistic attitude. Their attitude was expressed by one US auto worker who makes Chrysler sedans outside Detroit: “Someone has to go." However, there is a limit to all things. At a certain stage the mood of the workers will change to anger.

In a crisis the workers feel the need for trade union organization even more than in other periods. On the other hand, the seriousness of the crisis is forcing the bourgeois to take up an intransigent attitude in relation to the trade unions. The bosses have a strategy of taking on some key militant sections and defeating them in order to send out a message to the rest of the class. They are also taking advantage of the recession to go onto the offensive.

The old, cosy relationship with the union leaders is no longer possible. The crisis means that the workers must fight for every demand. In Britain there has been a whole series of deals, involving cuts in hours but also cuts in wages. On the other hand, where the workers have faced closure and the loss of everything we have seen factory occupations like Visteon. In our previous perspective documents we underlined the contradictory nature of the situation we were entering, in which a general decline in strike levels is combined with some very militant struggles in some sectors.

The refuse collectors’ strike in Denmark was very militant, although it took place in the midst of a general collapse of strike activity in the country. The intention was to take them on, use any means possible to smash them and then move on. This is similar to struggle of Mexican electricians. The struggle attracted the attention of the whole labour movement. The postal workers’ strikes in Britain had a similar aspect. The management seemed prepared to take on the workers, taking advantage of the more general mood and make an example of them. On that occasion, the union leaders found an excuse and backed off, but the problem remains.

The situation in the Netherlands has dramatically changed from what it was 10 years ago. From the period of “consensus” politics we now have a very polarized situation, with an aggressive ruling class facing an increasingly militant working class. During the post-war boom they could afford to grant concessions to the working class, and at the same time try to control the workers through their links with the Christian trade union federation (CNV). Now even the traditionally relatively right-wing CNV have gone into opposition against the CDA’s plans. In these conditions the Socialist Party has emerged as a sizeable force to the left of the Labour Party.

Consciousness of the working class

It is a very serious mistake for revolutionaries to confuse what we understand with how the masses see things. Most workers do not have the same consciousness as the Marxists. As we have already explained, the first effect of a deep crisis, a deep slump is shock. The workers do not understand what is happening. However, this is not a simple or uniform process. There are some quite bitter strikes taking place, even now. But at this stage one would not expect a generalized increase of strike activity. In a deep crisis: this would be completely unreal. There is a very low level of strikes as a matter of fact: in the USA, Britain, in Italy, Spain, France etc.

One cannot draw an automatic parallel between radicalization and strikes. Radicalization can express itself in many ways. Although the overall figures for strikes is low, there is already a growing ferment in society, a widespread questioning of the capitalist system which was not there before. This is a terrain in which our ideas can make a big impact. This is a change, and it is an important change. It provides favourable conditions for the development of the Marxist tendency. But we must be patient and follow the process of radicalization step by step, advancing concrete transitional slogans that can find an echo in the minds of the masses at each stage. Above all, we must patiently build our own forces, recruiting the ones and twos and training them in the ideas and methods of Marxism. and preparing the conditions to be able to attract and be able to make advance to Marxism groups and currents which will break away from the traditional organizations or which will emerge as a result of the class struggle

The reformist leaders tell the workers that if they are patient and make the necessary concessions and sacrifices, all will be well and the old conditions will be restored. This is a deception and a lie. The bourgeoisie cannot restore the old conditions. They do not know how to get out of the deep hole they have dug. The only thing that occurs to them is to place the full burden of the crisis on the shoulders of the workers and the middle class. A nightmare scenario therefore opens up before the masses everywhere. They all talk about balanced budgets, but this is impossible without deep cuts in living standards. This will still be the case in the event of an economic recovery.

The first signs of a recovery will lead to a wave of economic strikes, which will have a profound effect on all the labour organizations, impelling them to struggle in spite of the current leadership. Even the right wing trade union and the Social Democratic leaders will be affected and forced to the left by the stubborn pressure from below. The mass organizations will be shaken from top to bottom by a tide of radicalization. There will be a wave of defensive strikes and sit-ins to combat sackings and factory closures.