Friday, November 2, 2012

Today's BLS report (analysis)

Mike Gimbel writes:
The government's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) came out with their monthly report for October, 2012. The BLS reported a slight increase in the official unemployment rate of 7.9% from the 7.8% reported for September, 2012. In actuality, however, the October, 2012 REAL unemployment rate improved slightly in October, 2012 to 16.62% from 16.71% in September, 2012.
The REAL unemployed + underemployed (those working part-time but wanting full-time work) rate improved to 21.47% in October, 2012 from 21.73% in September, 2012.
For those unfamiliar with my methodology let me illustrate very simply why my numbers for the unemployment rate are REALITY, whereas the BLS "OFFICIAL" unemployment rate is completely bogus:
Under the theory of the BLS, if you give up looking for employment, you will no longer be listed as unemployed. That's, to put it in the mildest terms, BALONEY! Therefore, if everyone of the "OFFICIALLY" unemployed stopped looking for work today then the "OFFICIAL" unemployment rate would drop to 0.00%, zero, zed, zip. Does that make any sense to you? Not to me either! Just as in the case of rape where "rape is rape" regardless of how you slice it, unemployed is unemployed, regardless of how the BLS tries to hide the real numbers. The BLS also does not count you as unemployed in many other ways. Therefore, in my study, I have to go back to the monthly BLS report and dig out the real number. That is how I get to the above rates for my REAL unemployment report. 
My report represents REALITY, not the BLS fantasy 7.9% unemployment rate, as reported in the media ad nauseum. The more we repeat the fantasy of the "OFFICIAL" rate of unemployment as being at 7.9%, the more we help Wall Street throw sand in our eyes. We need to bring the truth to our class as to what is ACTUALLY happening. We need, every month, to expose the lie about the number of unemployed. Isn't that our duty?
The October, 2012 report represents a continuing slight improvement in the unemployment picture that has been going on since the peak of the unemployment hit 19.23% in December, 2009 and the unemployed+underemployed rate hit 24.60% in that same month. Yes, 16.62% is a lot better than 19.23%, but is that a good thing? Not when you consider that it is 34 months of pitifully slow recovery. 16.62% unemployment and 21.47% unemployed+underemployed represents a DISASTER today and a bigger DISASTER that is coming. The "Boom & Bust cycle" of capitalism is a law. The next bust is coming. There is no escaping that law and that bust comes closer with every passing month. When it hits, it will hit on top of the horrid current unemployment rate simply because the recovery is so very weak. 16.62%, or whatever the rate will be at the time of the "Bust", will be the floor upon which the newly unemployed will be added to. Will that new REAL unemployment rate be 25% or 35% or..... You get the point.
This is the classic "Jobless recovery", that is often referred to but mostly ignored by the big business media. 
Hopefully, after the presidential election is over, regardless of who wins, the progressive movement will wake up "and smell the coffee". The day after the election nothing will have changed in the economy. The unemployed and underemployed and all those actually employed will see a continued attack on our standard of living from the Wall Street bankers wanting to protect their bottom lines. Austerity measures will continue to be implemented. The only answer: FIGHT BACK!!! The trapping of the progressive movement into the Democratic Party has got to be fought against. It is a trap with no exit other than a clean break. If each union, each progressive organization, each left organization tries to fight a rearguard defense of just their member's rights, all on their own without consideration of the interests of the other unions and organizations, then we will be helpless in the face of Wall Street's attack. UNITY in action is the only solution. When we fight back TOGETHER, we can win. Nothing less. All other roads lead to ruin.
I will be so happy when this election is over. Presidential elections always divert our attention from the REAL fight. It destroys our ability to fight back as millions of working people are drawn into the fight over which candidate of Wall Street will least "screw us over". Yes, Mitt Romney is Wall Streets current "Glamour Boy", but do you really think that the Democratic Party really represents "the left", as they spend billions of dollars on this electoral campaign? Who pays the piper, calls the tune! Wall Street will dictate political policy for the White House and the Congress simply because this government is the best government "that money can buy".
Hopefully, the day after the election we can all wake up from this nightmare and begin to fashion a united and powerful fightback movement! There is no other choice!
--Mike Gimbel
The stupidities and absurdities by which mathematicians have rather excused than explained their mode of procedure, which remarkably enough always lead to correct results, exceed the worst and real fantasies of the Hegelian philosophy of nature.
                                                                  --Frederick Engels
Good physics is the study of three-dimensional matter in motion. Good mathematics involves unlimited dimensions, from utilization of just one dimension, two dimensions, four dimensions or as many dimensions as can be imagined. This is bad physics, however. Matter has only three dimensions: Length, Width & Height.
Physics has been in crisis for a century due to the intrusion of the field of mathematics. String Theory is the ultimate result of this nonsensical mathematical intrusion into physics.
Please read my book! You can get it on at:

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